Social Media.... Should we ban this for good????

First off, it’s been a long time since I wrote a blog (little more than 5 years as my last blog was published on 11^th February 2013)…. Finally I decided to break my silence and write this blog as I was getting frustrated with all the (mis)information which seems to have taken every common man’s life by a storm through social media.

Thanks to the mass social media, now every Tom Dick and Harry knows about every subject on the earth, heaven and beyond and has their own opinion on all these subjects… Of course, you should have got the same forwards so the arguments won’t be longer.  If you have received different version of forward, then probably you both will end up fighting over which of the (mis)information is correct and probably you both will never see each other eye-to-eye.

Many of you may remember the viral video/photo/post about rubber rice being sold in the market.  This mass spreading of rumor happened probably about two years back… What happened to that?  Did the manufacturers of rubber rice stopped manufacturing such stuff after all these viral spreading of social media message and people becoming aware of the rubber rice?

The most recent viral spreading of (mis)information is the problems due to usage of refined oil… The cooking oil companies have started spending crores of rupees to advertise that refining process of oil is indeed very good and being followed in 100+ countries… Suddenly, people thought refined cooking oil is causing cancer, heart attack and what not and now the onus is on these manufacturers to prove them wrong and, as usual, like fools, we are going to end up paying more price for oil which will include these advertising costs.

Another recent information being shared in social media is about the price of LPG cylinder in India.  Every common man is crying that the price of LPG cylinder has gone up to about Rs. 850+ from being around Rs.400+… What they all conveniently forget is that they get back a subsidy of about Rs.350+ in their bank account within seven days after paying the full price of Rs.850+… So, the price difference is normal considering the inflation. 

Why the common man who is spreading these messages in social media is forgetting that he has got the subsidy already in his bank account and that he has not paid Rs.850+ for the cylinder? 

For those section of people who are always against the ruling political party, the most recent trend to blame the Government is the conversion rate of Indian Rupee against dollar (and all other foreign currency for that matter). 

Anybody who knows a bit about economics and foreign trade and such will understand there are far too many parameters which decides the strength of a country’s currency against international currencies and in particular against USD as USD has become universal currency for all foreign trade.

If INR’s exchange rate against USD is a failure of the Prime Minister, then I would like for us to look at below data:

Average exchange rate in 1967 - 1US$ = INR 7.50

Average exchange rate in 1989 - 1US$ = INR 16.23

In the 22 year period as above, only for about three years, Mr. Desai was PM of India.  Otherwise, it was Mrs. Gandhi and later Mr. Rajiv Gandhi were the PM and Congress party was in power.  Can we say the reason for such a huge difference in the exchange rate is due to the failure of that political party?  If we say yes, then we also belong to that group of people who believe in the rumors spread in social media.  

By now many of you may be thinking the increase in exchange rate is not huge over a 22 year period.  But before you condemn me or start cursing me, please reserve your thoughts till you read this blog entirely.

Does anybody have any clue why INR is on such big free-fall of historic propotions?  Today (first week of September), 1US$ = almost INR 72…

One of the major reasons for such a huge decline in INR’s value is due to the fact that between 2009 and 2014, India continued to import oil from Iran.  International community has imposed sanctions against Iran and no country was allowed to make payments to Iran.  India and Iran signed an agreement to the effect that Iran will continue to sell oil to India and we can pay them after international sanctions have been lifted (this agreement was signed when Congress party was in power and Mr. Manmohan Singh was the PM). 

After 2014 when the sanctions were lifted, we started paying Iran for oil we imported since 2009.  This is one of the major reason INR went on a downfall against USD since 2015 and this trend still continues.  Why Congress leaders who are blaming BJP for this are silent about this fact? 

This link will give you better understanding of what happened after the sanctions were lifted against Iran and how India decided to pay out and also how we paid during the sanction.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-ready-to-clear-6-5-billion-of-Irans-oil-dues-seeks-clarity-on-payment-channel/articleshow/52063669.cms

Another blame game happening against the Prime Minister and Central Government is the so called 'uncontrolled' fuel prices in India.  Can the PM alone be blamed for increase in fuel prices?

On 20^th June 2005, price of Diesel was Rs.31.51 per liter in Chennai. On 23^rd May 2013, price of Diesel was Rs. 52.92 per liter in Chennai.  During this period Mr. M.M. Singh (Congress) was the Prime Minister.  The % of price increase is about 68%.  Can we just blame Congress and Mr.Singh for not controlling this?

Read my paragraph about paying in USD to Iran for fuel bought from Iran since 2009.  Our requirement for USD increase and INR got weaker.  With that weakened rate we are buying oil currently and obviously the price is going up on a daily basis.

Also, many brilliant people who create these memes about fuel prices and share them in social media say that Crude Oil is only around US$ 60 per barrel and so why should Diesel or Petrol cost so much in India…  I think these people believe that we buy crude oil and transport it free to India and supply directly to petrol bunks and we fill our vehicles with crude oil.

Why are we forgetting the other elements involved in arriving at the fuel price?  To the best of my knowledge below is the processes involved before we get the final product (Petrol, Diesel, LPG, etc.) for our use domestically:

• Purchase of Crude oil by paying in USD
• Transportation of crude oil to refineries by paying in USD (India does not have enough refineries to support our entire requirement)
•  Pay all charges to refineries in USD
• Transport finished product to India by paying in USD
• Cost of transportation locally from various ports in India to final destination

In above, you will understand that as our currency gets weaker and weaker, we keep paying all of the above charges in USD and those prices are calculated based on the exchange rate when we receive the finished product in India.

If any of us have paid attention, we would understand that the price of fuel costs is different in different cities even within the state.  This is due to the additional transportation costs involved in transporting the fuel to those cities.  Chennai will be cheaper compared to other interior cities in Tamil Nadu as Chennai port receives the finished product.  But to other cities within the state, they add the additional transportation cost from Chennai to that particular city.

Also, as we grow faster and urbanize ourselves much faster, our need for fuel has increased drastically.  This increased requirement for fuel has resulted in increased buying with foreign currency, of course.  This is a vicious cycle, where when our demand goes up and we need more foreign currency, INR gets weaker.

Below is the statistics of India's crude oil requirement:

1980 - 643,000 barrels per day

1990 - 1,168,000 barrels per day

2000 - 2,147,000 barrels per day

2010 - 3,305,000 barrels per day

2013 - 3,660,000 barrels per day

Look at the staggering increase in demand for crude oil in India.  Also, remember that the above numbers are the requirement per day!!!

Source for above data is: 

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=in&graph=consumption&product=oil

For anybody who's interested, below is how a barrel of crude oil is converted:

Every 159 liters barrel of Crude oil produces the following: 

• 73 liters Petrol
• 36 liters Diesel
• 20 liters Jet fuel & heavy fuel oil
• 6 liters Propene
• 34 liters of other products (Butane, Asphalt & Sulphur) 

India is the third largest buyer of Crude Oil in the world.  Just to give you an understanding of how much of fossil fuel we consume, please see the data below:

Total number of vehicles registered in India as of 31-March-2016:

• Two Wheelers    - 16.90 Crores
• Cars                    -  2.56 Crores
• Jeeps & Taxis     -  0.46 Crores
• Buses                  -  0.18 Crores
• Goods Vehicles   -  1.05 Crores
• Misc.                   -  1.85 Crores (tractors, three wheelers, etc.)

Let us assume average two wheeler consumes 1 liter of fuel per day, car/jeep/taxi 10 liters per day,  Buses 75 liters per day, goods vehicles 100 liters per day and Misc. consumes 10 liters a day.  This makes average daily requirement for fuel at a staggering 184.10 Crores liters of fuel per day.  If we take an average fuel price as Rs. 75 per liter (cost of diesel), daily sales of fuel in India is just in excess of Rs. 13,800 Crores per day.

The number of vehicles listed above is based on March 2016 and definitely there's an increase in the number vehicles in last two years.  Again, remember in above calculation we have not considered the requirement of fuel for generators and other industrial usage. This is an alarming rate of depleting fossil fuel.  The world is depleting fossil fuel so rapidly I am not sure where will be the future generations find fuel.

If we keep urbanizing ourselves at this rate, I won’t be surprised if 1US$ becomes about INR 150 very soon.  The reason I say this is a recent study in India says that only 22% of India’s rural income is from agriculture sector.  Once upon a time, this country’s back bone was agriculture and at least 60% (if not more) of rural income came from that sector.  Thanks to urbanization, our agricultural resources are depleting at an alarming rate.

With the rate at which population is growing and agricultural sector is shrinking, the days when we will be forced to import even our basic staple food items is not too far.  This will put a lot of strain on Indian currency and our requirement for USD will be much higher.  When this happens, all imported goods and services including fuel will be at least 75% expensive then it is today.

We forgot our grass roots and started ignoring and wiping out agricultural lands to build IT centers.  Can we eat Java script for breakfast and raw EDI data with flowcharts for lunch?

When population was less and India was almost self-sufficient in agricultural sector, the exchange rate was low and imported goods and services were cheaper (including fuel).  As the population grew, our requirement for imported goods and services started increasing rapidly and we are now seriously facing the outcome.  If we do not go back to basics and start to develop our agricultural sector, unfortunately, the future looks very bleak and scary.

With all this rumors and misinformation being spread in the social media, some very important news/information is not reaching the general public.  Couple of days back I’ve read an article about a study conducted by IIT Bombay.  The study conducted by them has found that lot of micro-plastic particles and plastic fibers were found in many popular brand salt sold in India. 

Here’s the link to that news: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/sea-water-microplastic-in-popular-salt-brands-reveals-iit-b-study/story-n7EWL1QZA7lNFBCiJmdd7L.html

The result says that this is due to the pollution of the sea and has nothing to do with quality of the manufacturing process by these brands.  How many of us have read this?  What a serious pollution issue this is!!!  We continue to pollute the world and we are leaving behind a very bad legacy for the generations to come.

One fine day someone will find a bigger plastic particle in salt and will start spreading rumor that table salt is made with plastic in India (like the rubber rice).  Then, every common public will have a lot of opinion about how to manufacture quality salt.

Why are people being so blind-sided and are not even willing to think before they share / spread such messages?  The way the things are going makes me wonder if we are producing human beings without brain and the basic skill of analyzing the information before coming to conclusion and spreading them… By God, I hope I’m wrong.

While talking about these social media forward messages and other rumors being spread, a friend of mine told me “With social media and our current education system, I think we have created more educated idiots”.  I think he was spot on in his assessment.

I hope that all those who forward messages in social media, will also forward this blog of mine to reach a mass audience and make this blog go viral… 😀